I’m fond of how Scott Alexander makes and scores predictions for himself to test his ability to assess likelihood. I also think it’s unfair that I don’t usually say things that could be counted as bad takes in the future.
Therefore, I’m going to list 50 broadly COVID-related predictions to score along with my estimated certainly of each occurring. All of these won’t occur, of course, but it’s useful to check not only directional predictions, but whether I’m correct in assessing how likely they are to occur. To aid that, I’m making exactly ten predictions at each confidence level (from 50% to 90%), so mistakes in my assessments will be clear.
Virus progression
More than 750,000 US COVID-19 deaths through the end of the year: 70%
…but probably less than 1 million: 80%
US remains the highest official death toll of any country: 90%
Daily cases will be rising again before March 31: 60%
But any future peak in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in 2021 will not match what we recently saw in the US: 90%
No week in the year will have fewer deaths than the average of five years before March 15, 2019: 70%
Like last year, cases and deaths will be higher in southern states than northern states over the summer: 70%
Like last year, cases will increase in November 2021: 80%
…but it will be less than half of what it was November-December 2020: 90%
The flu “comes back” to five-year averages in fall 2021 in the US: 50%
Vaccines
Vaccine supply will not outstrip demand (eligibility requirements most places) until at least 120 million Americans have gotten their first: 60%
…at least until at least 80 million Americans have gotten shots: 90%
Vaccinations will rise to 150 million by the end of June: 50%
No vaccine for children under 12 will be authorized in 2021: 80%
J&J vaccine will be authorized by FDA before the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine already approved around the world (sorry, Nate): 90%
An mRNA vaccine slightly recoded to better deal with new variants will be submitted for approval to FDA or EMA in 2021: 50%
No enforceable vaccines requirement will be imposed on public school students under 16 years-old in any school district in the country: 90%
That said, at least one school district might purport to require vaccines for a time, but it will not survive into the school year: 50%
Vaccines will not be required by any restaurant or venue: 90%
Vaccines will not be required for domestic air travel in 2021: 80%
Vaccines or antibody test results will be required for international travel from the US to the EU at some point in 2021: 50%
No law purports to require adults to take the vaccines in 2021: 80%
Few people will voluntarily get vaccines in the US from June 30 to September 30 (say less than 20 million total): 70%
Vaccination rates will pick up again on its own in October or November as cases rise: 60%
Government responses
At least 15 states will impose or reimpose restrictions before June 1 due to rising cases: 50%
By June 30, collapsing cases will spur at least 40 states to remove all restrictions except prohibitions on mass gatherings, masks for special cases (like cinemas) and occupancy controls equal to at least half of regular capacity: 70%
At least 95% of American school districts will be open to in-person schooling for students who want it at some point in fall 2021: 60%
The “Operational Strategy for K-12 Schools Through Phased Mitigation” will be softened or ignored by most states: 70%
In particular, virtually no jurisdiction will achieve continual <10 cases per 100,000 over 7 days, but most schools will open regardless: 60%
No federal stimulus or tax credit will be tied to getting vaccinated: 70%
No state will require higher-quality (or multiple) masks in 2021: 80%
Business conditions
Quarter-over-quarter growth in every quarter 2021: 80%
Domestic air passengers in August will be at least three quarters of 2019 levels for leisure/personal travel: 70%
…but business air travel will be below normal all year: 80%
Cinema revenue in the US returns to at least half of 2019 receipts by August: 50%
Urban real estate values will be lower at the end of the year than now: 60%
The stock market finishes at least 10% above the current levels: 80%
Trade shows attendance, even in August will be significantly down compared to 2019: 60%
…but fan cons will be back up to ninety percent (e.g. Dragon*Con): 50%
Coronagrifters and bad takes
There will still be a “only 6% died” bad take tweet (like this) with 150 or more likes posted in November or December 2021: 90%
…same, but denying the infectious nature of viruses (like this): 90%
…same, but for a tweet using the term “casedemic” (like this): 60%
…same, but for “fewer than 3 million people died in 2020” (like this): 60%
Alex Berenson will make at least $500,000 selling COVID-19 books and pamphlets this year: 60%
Berenson never abandons his antivax rhetoric in 2021 even as cases begin to show effects of vaccine-produced herd immunity: 70%
Two of these antivax bluecheck accounts will be banned by Twitter in 2021: @alexberenson, @naomirwolf, @RobertKennedyJr, @MartineWonner: 50%
A putatively non-profit Coronagrifter entity will be prosecuted or publicly investigated for financial or tax crimes in 2021: 50%
A marked decline in new bad COVID-19 takes occurs in 2021: 90%
Meta
At least two of the above predictions will sound very dated in 2022: 80%
I write a post scoring these predictions before Feb. 1, 2022: 70%
Scott Alexander has posted two relevant newsletters, but I swear I started this list before I saw them; I’m just slow.
Disagree with anything? Want to know my thinking? Respond in the comments!